Thursday, May 7, 2015

ValueQuest India Moat Fund Portfolio

Unfortunately only I have been able to find only 2 stocks where it is confirmed that the ValueQuest India Moat Fund (VQIMF) run by professor Bakshi is invested. They could be invested in a universe of over 4000 other companies and I am going to make an attempt to figure out which companies those are.

Some assumptions I am going to make

  • The fund is unlikely to engage in short term trading and will not sell a position for at least a year
  • The internet will find out about Prof. Bakshi's positions a few months after he probably starts taking the position
  • The data given on trust net offshore ( about the NAV of ValueQuest India Moat fund is correct
  • The Quarter end shareholding number change report is bought at the average of the closing prices on the quarter
  • The stocks that do not show VQIMF as a holder cannot be held by VQIMF more than 0.99%. I am assuming that the fund does not hold any equity swaps and always holds direct equity.
The aforementioned assumptions may or may not be true but in order to figure out what the portfolio holds I have to do this.

The following are the stocks I could find by googling Prof. Bakshi's positions and the earliest date I can find online talking about that stock.

Company Earliest Date
Eicher Motors 19-Oct-08
NESCO 12-Aug-12
Ashiana Housing 7-Dec-12
Thomas Cook 1-Dec-13
Symphony 1-Jan-14
Relaxo Footwears 18-Mar-14
Kitex 12-Aug-14
Poddar Developers 5-Oct-14
Ambika Cotton Mills 1-Jan-15
Vaibhav Global 27-Jan-15

From this chart I would assume that companies in the portfolio are Kitex, Poddar, Ambika and Vaibhav - basically the last 4. This is because the fund was launched around 1 Apr 2014 and only post that time period ideas may have been implemented.

In order to match the NAV curve on Trust Net offshore, I played around with the weights of these 4 names and came to some numbers. These are not exact acc

Unfortunately the return on each of Prof. Bakshi's past picks has been as good or around the return of VQIMF so it is difficult to predict the portfolio composition from the following table:
Stock 31-Mar-15 31-Dec-14 30-Sep-14 30-Jun-14
Eicher Motors 149% 136% 87% 25%
NESCO 73% 97% 40% 24%
Ashiana Housing 145% 98% 62% 17%
Thomas Cook 128% 76% 58% 29%
Symphony 199% 124% 59% 15%
Relaxo Footwears 92% 65% 41% 13%
Kitex 337% 318% 306% 87%
Poddar Developers 1151% 830% 240% 40%
Ambika Cotton Mills 154% 71% 54% 25%
Vaibhav Global 10% -14% 19% 10%
VQIMF Return 98% 78% 45% 17%

Unfortunately I am unable to derive the portfolio that will match the return exactly. Mathematically there are several portfolios that will match the return.