Thursday, April 23, 2015

Cloning the Dolly Khanna portfolio blindly: 40%+ in fy2014 with 14% Index outperformance!

Several value investing students in the US follow the 13F filing of their favorite managers. A 13F is a public disclosure of an institutional manager's holdings to the SEC. Now, the bad news is that unfortunately I do not know of a 13F equivalent in India. The good news is that moneycontrol has a shareholding screener where you can search for a shareholder name and the site will search the company filings for that name. You can also scour online blogs to figure out who holds what. Then you can look at the shareholding history on the BSE (Bombay stock exchange) website and calculate the shares they held.

After the article on "Dolly Khanna's ridiculous 89% return" many a reader asked me "This is all very good, but what's in it for me?" so I thought I should run an analysis to see if I bought/sold all that I could find about Dolly Khanna stocks 50 days after the end of the quarter what return would that portfolio get? The reason I picked 50 days after the end of the quarter is because by then all companies have reported their shareholding patterns. You could buy some earlier and some later but that analysis would take too long. In any case I think this one is more punitive on the return as well.



The answer is astounding! The NIFTY in FY2014 returned 26.7% and this portfolio over the same period would have returned 40.7% assuming you got 0% interest on the cash balances! Thats a 14% or so outperformance. No wonder there are people overseas blindly following what good investors are doing. The regulatory framework in India makes this harder to do but its not impossible!


Total             140.7             144.4             149.7             109.1             100.0
Cash (assuming 15% on 31 Mar 2014)              38.5              38.5              11.9                2.2              15.0
Portfolio Value             102.2             105.9             137.8             106.9              85.0
  31-Mar-15 19-Feb-15 19-Nov-14 19-Aug-14 20-May-14
Cera Sanitaryware 17% 12% 11% 12% 13%
Hawkins Cooker 0% 0% 9% 15% 14%
RS Software 8% 14% 17% 10% 6%
Huhtamaki PPL 11% 8% 9% 9% 8%
Avanti Feeds 0% 0% 8% 5% 0%
Nilkamal 6% 6% 5% 5% 3%
Liberty Shoes 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Wim Plast 5% 5% 4% 4% 3%
Aditya Birla Chemicals 4% 4% 6% 5% 4%
Selan Exploration Technology 3% 4% 8% 13% 14%
Nucleus Software 3% 3% 4% 5% 6%
IFB Industries 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Manjushree Technopack 0% 0% 3% 3% 2%
Asian Granito 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%
IFB Agro Industries 2% 3% 2% 0% 0%
Premier Explosives 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Mold-Tek Packaging 2% 2% 1% 1% 0%
Heritage Foods 0% 0% 0% 5% 7%
Relaxo Footwears 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%